Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY 2025

On October 16, 2025, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2025 ending September 30, 2025, was $1,775 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2025 federal budget published in February 2024:

Federal Finances FY 2025 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$5,485	$5,235
Outlays	$7,226	$7,010
Deficit	$1,781	$1,775

We use the spending projections from the FY 2025 budget because the Federal government did not publish spending projections in its Budget for Fiscal Year 2026 as originally published in May 2025.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2025 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2025. usdgovernmentspending.com obtains the data for outlays and receipts from apis at fiscaldata.treasury.gov.

This MTS report on FY 2025 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2025 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY27 budget in February 2026. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2025 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY25 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2025 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2027 federal budget is published in February 2026 with the actual outlays for FY 2025 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

State and Local Finances for 2023

On September 11, 2025 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2023 released on July 31, 2025.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2023 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau. In addition, the Census Bureau published updated tables for 2021 and 2022.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2024-30 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

We have also updated data for individual local government units with data for 2023. 

Beginning in 2022 the Census Bureau has changed the value for Line 56 Direct Expenditure and Line 7 General Revenue from own sources, as follows:

We have decided to end our publication of non-insurance trust cash and security holdings.

However, to keep the time series at usgovernmentspending.com consistent, we have decided to add insurance-trust values back into Line 56 and Line 7 values. 

State Spending for 2023

In March 2025 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2023 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On June 26, 2025 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2023 through FY2029 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2023 using the new FY2022 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2021 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2021 and FY 2022.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2023 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2023 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2021 and FY 2022.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 thru FY2029 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2022 state finances and FY 2023 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

In recent years the Census Bureau has reported Medicaid Vendor Payments to States under item code E74 and other welfare payments under E75 and E79. But now they are all combined under item code E79. This is a problem because usgovernmentspending.com reports Medicaid and the rest of Welfare separately. For now, we are  "guesstimating" E74, E75 and E79 pending release of the combined state and local finances later this year.

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2022 not earlier than Summer 2024.